​Vladimir Guerrero Jr., affectionately known as “Vladdy,” has firmly established himself as one of baseball’s premier hitters since his MLB debut with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2019. Despite his impressive performance in the 2024 season, where he achieved a career-high batting average of .323 and hit 30 home runs, the Blue Jays and Guerrero Jr. were unable to reach an agreement. 

​Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Toronto Blue Jays’ star first baseman, recently shed light on his contract extension discussions with the team. Contrary to circulating rumors, Guerrero Jr. clarified that his final proposal was for a 14-year contract valued at under $600 million, significantly less than the 15-year, $765 million deal Juan Soto secured with the New York Mets. ​Consequently, he is set to enter free agency after the upcoming season, introducing uncertainty about his future with the franchise. 

Evaluating Vladdy as a Five-Tool Player:

With the negotiations done for the time being, it would be useful to determine what Vladdy brings to the table in terms of him being a “five-tool player”. Let’s assess Guerrero Jr.’s skills across these tools:​

• ✅ Hitting for Average: Elite – Guerrero Jr. boasts a career .288 batting average and multiple .300+ seasons. He makes consistent, hard contact, ranking among the league’s best in exit velocity and barrel rate.
• ✅ Hitting for Power: Elite – One of the best raw power hitters in baseball, Guerrero Jr. led the AL in home runs in 2021 (48 HR, .601 SLG). Though his HR totals fluctuated in recent years, his ability to hit towering shots with high exit velocities is undeniable.
• ❌ Speed: Below Average – At 6’2″, 245 lbs, Guerrero Jr. is not a base-stealing threat. He has just 14 career stolen bases and ranks below average in sprint speed.
• ✅ Arm Strength: Above Average – Initially a third baseman, his arm was strong enough for the hot corner, but he transitioned to first base due to mobility concerns. While he doesn’t use his arm as much at 1B, it’s still solid for the position.
• ✅ Fielding Ability: Improved – Won the 2022 AL Gold Glove at first base, showing progress defensively. While not a natural defensive wizard, his work ethic and athleticism have made him an above-average fielder at first.

Comparison to Other Players based on :

Here’s an overview of notable first basemen, detailing their age, contract specifics, and an assessment of their five-tool capabilities:​

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1. Freddie Freeman (Age 35, Los Angeles Dodgers)

• Contract: 6 years, $162 million (signed in 2022)
• AAV: $27 million

Five-Tool Breakdown:

✅ Hitting for Average: Exceptional – One of the most consistent hitters of his generation. A career .301 hitter, Freeman routinely ranks among league leaders in hard-hit balls and OBP.
✅ Hitting for Power: Above Average – While not a pure home-run hitter, Freeman has 30+ HR power and has a career SLG of .512. He doubles machine, consistently hitting 40+ doubles per season.
❌ Speed: Below Average – Freeman has decent baserunning instincts but lacks true speed. He has just 95 stolen bases in 14 seasons.
✅ Arm Strength: Above Average – Freeman has a strong and accurate arm, though it’s not tested often at first base. He played some third base early in his career, showing that his arm is better than most 1B.
✅ Fielding Ability: Excellent – Freeman has won multiple Gold Gloves, consistently grading out as one of the best defensive first basemen in the league. His footwork and ability to scoop throws make him a premier defender.

📝 Summary: Freeman is four-tool player, missing only speed. His elite bat, power, and defense make him one of the best first basemen in baseball.

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2. Pete Alonso (Age 30, New York Mets)

• Contract: 2 years, $54 million (signed in 2025)
• AAV: $27 million

Five-Tool Breakdown:

✅ Hitting for Average: Above Average – Alonso is not a contact-first hitter but still maintains a respectable career .251 AVG. He has some swing-and-miss tendencies but offsets that with a solid OBP (.346 career).
✅ Hitting for Power: Elite – Alonso is a pure slugger, leading the league in home runs as a rookie (53 HR in 2019)and continuing to be one of the top power hitters in MLB. His career SLG sits at .528.
❌ Speed: Below Average – Alonso is not a fast runner and rarely attempts steals. He relies more on raw strength than agility on the base paths.
❌ Arm Strength: Average – Alonso’s arm is decent but not standout. It’s sufficient for first base but wouldn’t be enough for third base or the outfield.
❌ Fielding Ability: Below Average – While Alonso has improved defensively, he still rates below-average compared to other top-tier first basemen. His range and glove work are serviceable but not exceptional.

📝 Summary: Alonso is a two-tool player, excelling in power and decent contact ability. His lack of speed, defense, and arm strength prevents him from being a five-tool star.

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3. Matt Olson (Age 31, Atlanta Braves)

• Contract: 8 years, $168 million (signed in 2022)
• AAV: $21 million

Five-Tool Breakdown:

✅ Hitting for Average: Above Average – Olson has improved his contact skills, hitting .280+ in 2023 and 2024, though he previously hovered around .250-.260.
✅ Hitting for Power: Elite – Olson is one of the best power hitters in MLB, hitting 54 HR in 2023 and regularly ranking among league leaders in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.
❌ Speed: Below Average – Olson is not known for his speed, rarely attempting steals and ranking low in sprint speed metrics.
✅ Arm Strength: Above Average – As a former third baseman, Olson has a strong throwing arm, even though it’s not frequently needed at first base.
✅ Fielding Ability: Elite – Olson has won multiple Gold Gloves, consistently grading out as one of the best defensive first basemen in the league.

📝 Summary: Olson is a four-tool player, excelling in hitting, power, defense, and arm strength.

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4. Christian Walker (Age 34, Houston Astros)

• Contract: 3 years, $60 million (signed in 2025)
• AAV: $20 million

Five-Tool Breakdown:

✅ Hitting for Average: Above Average – Walker has improved as a contact hitter in recent years, posting a career-best .275 AVG in 2023.
✅ Hitting for Power: High – While not at Alonso or Olson’s level, Walker has 30-HR power and an above-average slugging percentage.
❌ Speed: Below Average – Walker has decent baserunning instincts but isn’t a stolen base threat.
✅ Arm Strength: Above Average – Walker has an underrated arm, which helps him turn double plays at first base efficiently.
✅ Fielding Ability: Elite – One of the best defensive first basemen, Walker has won multiple Gold Gloves and is known for his quick reactions and scooping ability.

📝 Summary: Walker is a four-tool player, excelling in contact hitting, power, defense, and arm strength. Like others on this list, his lack of speed keeps him from being a true five-tool player.

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Final Thoughts:

The five-tool label is rare among first basemen because speed is not required. Most top first basemen excel in hitting, power, and defense, but none fully meet the five-tool definition due to a lack of speed and range. That said, the one thing that sets Vladdy apart from the others on this list is that he is only 26 years old and starting to hit his prime. Below are some potential marks against him getting a lengthy deal in the $550-$600M range.

Consistency and Performance: While Guerrero Jr. had an impressive 2024 season, batting .323 with 30 home runs and 103 RBIs, his overall career has seen fluctuations. Two of his six MLB seasons have been standout years, while the others were considered average. This inconsistency may lead teams to question whether his peak performance is sustainable over the long term. ​

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Baseball-Reference

Physical Conditioning: There have been discussions regarding Guerrero Jr.’s physique and its potential impact on his longevity and performance. Concerns about his conditioning and how it might affect his durability over a lengthy contract could be influencing the Blue Jays’ cautious approach and potentially other teams.

Market Dynamics: The escalating salaries in MLB, highlighted by recent mega-deals, set high benchmarks for elite players. Guerrero Jr.’s contract expectations align with this trend, but MLB teams must consider their financial flexibility and the implications of committing to such a substantial contract to someone who may be above average but not elite compared to other players. 

We’ll see how this season shakes out for Guerrero Jr. and whether he can have an outstanding season that will make his case stronger for a long contract that would be in the $38-$42M AAV per year range.

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